In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses the gold price outlook, silver market update, COMEX futures positioning, political risks, and the weaker outlook for platinum and palladium. Gold is trading near $4,028 after testing below $4,000 earlier in July. Jeff explains why a break above the current downward trendline could produce a short-lived move toward $4,200. A break below $4,000 could instead lead to another sharp move lower.

Jeff reviews the August COMEX gold futures contract. Open interest fell from 19.3 million ounces to 13.9 million ounces as traders rolled positions into October and December. That activity could support gold for several more days. The effect should fade as the August delivery period begins. Jeff also explains why COMEX is not running out of gold. Registered and eligible stocks total roughly 27 million ounces.

Silver is trading near $57.52 and continues to struggle with resistance around $60. A break above the current trendlines could carry silver toward $64. A break below $55 could open the way to $50 or even $45. Jeff contrasts the political and economic risks supporting gold and silver with the weaker industrial fundamentals for platinum and palladium.

The presentation also addresses the summer slowdown in precious metals, the possibility of stronger gold and silver prices from September through December, and why recent changes in China’s gold market were a nonevent rather than the dramatic market shock.

Courtesy of the CPM Group