After posting its strongest annual performance since 1979 last year, silver prices continued to set new highs in 2026, fueled by rising investor interest. The metal reached multiple record levels in January, breaching the psychologically important $100 level for the first time. As a result, the gold:silver ratio fell below 50, a level last seen in 2012. Silver then declined below US$80.00 but has since shown resilience, forming technical price support.

The underlying drivers that supported silver throughout much of 2025 have remained firmly in place so far this year. These include tight physical supply in London, a volatile geopolitical backdrop, US policy uncertainty, and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. In addition, silver’s underlying supply-demand fundamentals remain supportive. The silver market is expected to remain in deficit (total supply less demand) for a sixth consecutive year in 2026.

The Silver Institute provides this annual outlook on the 2026 silver market, relying on analysis provided by Metals Focus, the distinguished global precious metals research consultancy based in London. The firm will research and produce the Silver Institute’s annual report on the international silver market, World Silver Survey 2026, which will be released on April 15.

Silver Demand

Global silver demand is expected to remain largely unchanged in 2026, as healthy gains in retail investment are likely to offset most of the losses across other key demand segments, notably in jewelry, silverware, and industrial demand.

Silver industrial fabrication is forecast to decline by 2 percent in 2026, to a four-year low of around 650 million ounces (Moz.) As was seen last year, the weakness will be underpinned by developments in the photovoltaic (PV) sector. While global solar installations are expected to continue rising, ongoing thrifting and outright substitution away from silver will result in falling silver PV demand.

Several silver applications continue to benefit from favorable structural growth trends. In particular, the expansion of data centers, artificial intelligence-related technologies, and the automotive sector are expected to support silver consumption across a range of industrial end-uses, partially offsetting the decline in PV-related demand.

Jewelry demand is projected to fall for the second consecutive year, declining by over 9 percent in 2026 to 178 Moz, its lowest level since 2020. As in 2025, record-high prices are expected to curtail consumption across most key markets, led by India. China will be the main exception, with demand anticipated to edge higher, supported by product innovation and the growing popularity of gold-plated silver jewelry.

Silverware demand is expected to contract more sharply, declining by approximately 17 percent in 2026. Most losses are forecast to occur in India, where silverware demand is highly price-sensitive due to its discretionary and gift-driven nature.

By contrast, physical investment is forecast to rise by 20 percent to a three-year high of 227 Moz. After three consecutive years of decline, Western physical investment is expected to recover in 2026, as silver’s exceptional price performance and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty rekindle investor interest. Investment demand in India is also likely to build on last year’s substantial gains amid positive investor sentiment.

Silver Supply

Total global silver supply is forecast to increase by 1.5 percent in 2026, reaching a decade high of 1.05 billion ounces.

In 2026, silver mine production is expected to increase by 1% to 820 Moz, driven by stronger output from existing operations and recently commissioned projects. In Mexico, the most growth will come from primary silver mines. In China, we expect higher output from China Gold International’s Jiama polymetallic mine as the plant expansion continues. Gains in Canada are expected from freshly commissioned projects and existing primary gold and silver operations, most notably Hecla’s Keno Hill and New Gold’s New Afton (in the process of being acquired by Coeur Mining). In Morocco, a rise in production will be underpinned by Aya Gold and Silver’s Zgounder mine as the ramp-up phase is completed. In Peru, forecasted lower production from operations such as Nexa Resources’ Cerro Lindo and Buenaventura’s Tambomayo will outweigh expected increases at other operations.

By-product silver from primary gold mines is forecast to grow in 2026. No one country dominates, with notable increases expected from Barrick Mining’s Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, Gold Fields’ Salares Norte in Chile, and Polymetal International’s Nezhda in Russia. Output from primary silver mines will remain virtually flat year-on-year, supplying 28% of silver mine production. In contrast to output from primary gold and silver mines, supply from base metal operations is expected to decrease marginally year-on-year. Gold, copper, and silver prices have reached all-time highs, enabling lower production volumes to deliver higher revenues. This could underpin stronger production in the coming years, as companies benefit from elevated prices and healthier margins that can be directed towards capital development. However, suppressed zinc and lead prices create downside risk to the sustainability of lead/zinc operations.

Silver recycling is projected to rise by 7 percent, with volumes surpassing 200 Moz for the first time since 2012. Most scrap sources are expected to post high single-digit growth, led by silverware as consumers increasingly take advantage of elevated prices.

As a result, the silver market is expected to remain in deficit in 2026 for the sixth consecutive year, at a noteworthy 67 Moz. As a result, the global silver market will continue to rely on the release of bullion from above-ground inventories, adding pressure to an already tight physical market.

Silver Investment

Silver has risen by 11 percent in 2026 as of February 9. Elevated geopolitical tensions, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, and persistent uncertainty surrounding US policy have continued to support precious metals investment. Coin and bar demand has strengthened in recent months, while global ETP holdings stand at an estimated 1.31 billion ounces.

During this period, continuing physical tightness has further amplified upward price momentum. This reflects ongoing US tariff concerns, strong investment demand, and a persistent fundamental deficit that has been in place since 2021. Earlier uncertainty about China’s silver export policy briefly raised fears of supply disruptions, though these concerns have eased in recent weeks.

Looking ahead, the global economic and geopolitical environment is likely to remain supportive for precious metals prices in 2026. In addition, physical liquidity in the London silver market may remain relatively tight. Furthermore, a still-supportive macroeconomic backdrop and forecasted strength in gold should help limit downside risks for the silver price, even though heightened price volatility will remain a feature for the foreseeable future.

The Silver Institute is the silver industry’s primary voice in expanding public awareness of silver’s essential role in today’s world. Its mandates are to provide the global market with reliable statistics and information on silver and to create and execute programs that help drive demand for silver. For more information on silver, including its important and growing use in the green energy transition, please visit www.silverinstitute.org.