In this episode, Michael Fox and Dr. Dave Lawie, the Chief Geoscientist from Imdex discuss the concept of Schrodinger’s cat in the context of critical metals and green tech metals, focusing on the copper and lithium markets. They also discussed the future of electric vehicles and their impact on the lithium market, as well as the challenges and potential solutions related to the sourcing and production of critical metals like nickel. The conversation concluded with plans to meet again in Vancouver in mid-January for the AME BC Roundup to continue the conversation.

Copper and Lithium Market Debate

Michael and Dave discussed the concept of Schrodinger’s cat in the context of critical metals and green tech metals. They focused on the copper and lithium markets, with Michael arguing that the copper cat is alive and will become a shortage problem due to increasing demand and dwindling reserves. Dave countered that the copper cat is currently dead due to a lack of action to meet the growing demand. They also discussed the potential for AI data centers to exacerbate the copper shortage. For lithium, Dave argued that the cat is dead due to a lack of investment in new mines and a focus on recycling, while Michael disagreed, stating that the lithium cat is alive due to the increasing demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage. They concluded that the cat is on life support and needs to be kept alive.

Electric Vehicles and Lithium Market

Dave and Michael discussed the future of electric vehicles (EVs) and their impact on the lithium market. Dave argued that despite current challenges, the EV market will continue to grow, with the lithium market benefiting from increased demand for batteries in EVs and grid-scale energy storage. He also pointed out that the hybrid vehicle market, which requires more platinum and palladium, could help keep the platinum group metals (PGM) market alive. Michael, on the other hand, raised concerns about the potential slowdown of EV adoption in the West due to the new US President’s stance on electric vehicles and the challenges of supplying EVs from China. However, he also suggested that the lithium market could still be alive if the trend of adopting hybrid vehicles continues, as they require more lithium than EVs.

Critical Metals Sourcing and Production

Dave and Michael discussed the challenges and potential solutions related to the sourcing and production of critical metals like nickel. They acknowledged the environmental and social concerns associated with mining and refining these metals, particularly in countries like Indonesia. The conversation also touched on the possibility of consumers being willing to pay a premium for metals sourced in a more environmentally friendly manner. Dave suggested that public awareness and education could play a role in this, but noted that it’s a complex issue. They also discussed the potential for countries like Brazil to develop complete source-to-product supply chains for critical metals. The conversation ended with the question of who would bear the cost of reshoring supply chains and the challenges of making rational investment decisions in the face of fluctuating metal prices.

Securing Supply Chains and Risks

Dave discussed the importance of securing supply chains, particularly in the context of the Western world’s reliance on Chinese materials. He highlighted the government’s role in underwriting companies to ensure supply chain security, despite the risks involved. Dave also pointed out the dangers of relying on a single supply source, using the example of a North Carolina mine that was the global supply of high purity quartz for semiconductor production. He further mentioned the shortage of sand for glass manufacturing, which is causing “sand wars” in countries like India and Vietnam. Michael agreed with Dave’s points, emphasizing the need for infrastructure development in Western cities.

Solar Panel and Battery Recycling

Dave discussed the recycling of solar panels and lithium batteries, highlighting the challenges and potential solutions. He noted that the glass in solar panels could be recycled to meet the market demand for glass, and that lithium batteries could be recycled but the technology is not yet commercially viable. Michael agreed, mentioning that some companies are working on recycling battery materials but their success is uncertain. They also discussed the importance of considering the end-of-life of these technologies and the need for sustainable recycling solutions. The conversation concluded with a thought-provoking question about what people would want in their stockings, given the previous discussion on recycling and sustainability.