In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses the gold and silver price outlook, platinum and palladium fundamentals, and the investment demand assumptions behind precious metals surplus and deficit calculations. He explains why broken trend lines and possible further short-term weakness have not changed CPM’s expectation that gold and silver prices will rise over the longer term.

Jeff reviews several aspects of gold’s recent movements, including its technical support around $4,000. He explains why CPM places greater weight on macroeconomic conditions, supply and demand, inventories, and investor behavior than it does on technical analysis. Technical analysis helps CPM assess timing and understand other traders’ decisions, but it does not determine our price outlook.

Jeff then looks at platinum and palladium. CPM estimates that above-ground platinum inventories have grown to roughly 14–15 million ounces, with about half held by investors. He also discusses platinum’s enlarged surplus and palladium’s greater price weakness and the reasons behind it.

The silver market discussion focuses on why CPM separates investment purchases from fabrication demand when calculating market balances. Jeffrey shows how this distinction can change the number of years reported as deficits and explains why investors and fabricators should be analyzed separately.

Courtesy of the CPM Group