In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group provides a precious metals update, covering the gold price outlook, silver market analysis, COMEX positioning, inflation, economic growth, Federal Reserve interest rates, and growing risks in the stock market.

Gold reached approximately $4,138 during the morning. Jeff explains why that may be the near-term peak and why gold and silver could soften during the first two or three weeks of August.

The August COMEX gold futures roll is now largely behind the market. Open interest in the August contract fell from 27.5 million ounces at the end of June to 2.7 million ounces. Most of those positions moved into the December contract. Jeffrey also reviews COMEX gold inventories and explains why claims of an imminent inventory shortage do not match the available data.

Silver continues to trade around $60. CPM Group expects both gold and silver to face short-term pressure before prices potentially strengthen during the final four months of the year. Jeffrey also discusses platinum and palladium, which remain weaker than gold and silver.

Jeff then discusses lower U.S. GDP growth, consumer spending, disposable income, and inflation that remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. Jeffrey explains why CPM has moved its recession expectation into the 2027–2029 period.

Courtesy of the CPM Group