Prospector News Michael Fox is joined by John Williams, the founder of Shadow Stats, who discussed the potential inaccuracies in the formation of job numbers. John Williams is an independent economist and his company’s mission to provide independent forecasts based on actual data. He expressed his concerns about the current government figures for inflation and economic activity, particularly ahead of an election, and emphasized his commitment to providing politically independent forecasts. Williams also presented his “shadow stats” alternative unemployment measure, which includes discouraged workers and those working part-time, currently at 26.7%. The discussion highlighted job gains in sectors like healthcare, leisure, and construction, while manufacturing and retail saw losses, and Williams emphasized the potential political implications of the employment figures and their impact on the slowing economy.

Unemployment Statistics and Labor Market Discussion

John and Michael discussed the inaccuracies of the current unemployment statistics, specifically the undercounting of discouraged workers. John argued that the official unemployment rate of 4.2% significantly underestimated the actual situation of long-term unemployment and highlighted the major political issue of people wanting to work but being unable to find jobs. Michael agreed, pointing out that the official numbers did not meet the eye test and that a more accurate picture of the labor market would be provided by the broader measure of unemployment. They also discussed the unusual economic circumstances since the pandemic, with manipulations of data on unemployment, inflation, and oil and gas reserves etc.

To Contact John Williams of Shadow Stats

johnwilliams@shadowstats.com

(707) 763-5786