London Metals Exchange Week is under way this week and as such we wanted to share some interesting polling and data points with you.
- Copper Sentiment Since 2015. Although this is from COMEX, we notice a similar trend. Notice the recent uptick.
- Warehouse levels dropped ~4% once again last week. Now sitting at ~450,000 at the three major exchanges, COMEX, LME and SHFE. NOTE copper inventories are sitting at 7 days usage in warehouses. The question is how much copper sits “off warrant” (annual demand is ~24Mts). The trend below is not sustainable, something is going to have to break soon.
- So what do participants feel about the copper price over the next 12 months? Macquarie did a poll of 400 clients at LME. Here is the result of their un-scientific poll asking, what % of attendees are “short” and “long” in various base metals. View orange arrow, effectively only 5% of those polled would be short – so who is short? Who is selling? And who or what is sucking all the tonnage from global warehouses? Copper Price collapsing same time as warehouses emptying?
- Prognosticating the future price of any commodity is a mugs games. In any event, Macquarie’s poll suggests most participants see copper back over $3/lb for the next 12 months.