Every key area of silver demand is forecast to rise in 2021, including a record total for industrial demand, despite ongoing supply chain challenges, reported Philip Newman, Managing Director at Metals Focus, and Adam Webb, Director of Mine Supply, during the Silver Institute’s Interim Silver Market Review webcast today, which featured historical supply and demand statistics and estimates for 2021. The following are the key highlights from the presentation:
Silver Supply and Demand | Year on Year | ||||||||||||
Million ounces | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021E | 2020 | 2021E |
Supply |
|||||||||||||
Mine Production | 763 | 796 | 845 | 882 | 897 | 900 | 864 | 850 | 836 | 780 | 829 | -7% | 6% |
Recycling | 232 | 216 | 193 | 175 | 167 | 164 | 168 | 168 | 171 | 182 | 192 | 7% | 5% |
Net Hedging Supply | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18% | -17% |
Net Official Sector Sales | 12 | – | – | 11 | 2 | – | – | – | 15 | 8 | – | na | na |
Total Supply | 1,012 | 1,015 | 1,040 | 1,069 | 1,067 | 1,065 | 1,033 | 1,019 | 1,023 | 972 | 1,022 | -5% | 5% |
Demand |
|||||||||||||
Industrial | 508 | 451 | 461 | 450 | 457 | 491 | 519 | 513 | 515 | 487 | 524 | -5% | 8% |
Photography | 62 | 53 | 46 | 44 | 41 | 38 | 35 | 34 | 33 | 28 | 29 | -15% | 4% |
Jewelry | 162 | 159 | 187 | 193 | 202 | 188 | 195 | 202 | 200 | 146 | 173 | -27% | 18% |
Silverware | 42 | 41 | 47 | 54 | 58 | 54 | 60 | 68 | 62 | 32 | 40 | -48% | 25% |
Net Physical Investment | 273 | 241 | 301 | 283 | 310 | 211 | 154 | 163 | 183 | 199 | 263 | 9% | 32% |
Net Hedging Demand | – | 40 | 29 | – | – | 12 | 2 | 8 | – | – | – | na | na |
Total Demand | 1,046 | 984 | 1,070 | 1,023 | 1,068 | 995 | 965 | 987 | 993 | 892 | 1,029 | -10% | 15% |
Market Balance | -34 | 31 | -30 | 46 | -2 | 71 | 68 | 32 | 30 | 80 | -7 | 165% | na |
Net Investment in ETPs | -18 | 53 | 5 | -0.3 | -17 | 54 | 7 | -21 | 83 | 331 | 150 | 298% | -55% |
Market Balance less ETPs | -15 | -22 | -35 | 111 | 81 | 85 | 129 | 53 | -53 | -251 | -157 | 373 % | -38% |
Silver Price (US$/oz, London price) | 35.12 | 31.15 | 23.79 | 19.08 | 15.68 | 17.14 | 17.05 | 15.71 | 16.21 | 20.55 | 25.40 | 27% | 24% |
Source: Metals Focus |
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