The costs of dependence on oil for transportation, which affects energy security, environmental security, and economic stability, have become increasingly clear to governments around the world.  As a result, a number of policies aimed at reducing oil consumption have been initiated in many countries, including subsidizing alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles, biofuels mandates, and higher fuel economy requirements for new vehicles.  According to a new report from Navigant Research, gasoline consumption for road transportation will continue to rise through 2021, reaching 367.3 billion gallons a year, but then start to fall thereafter, declining to 348.1 billion gallons a year in 2035.

Overall, from 2014 to 2035, worldwide gas consumption by the road transportation sector will fall 4 percent, the report concludes.

“The anticipated effects of climate change are driving international cooperation on mitigation efforts, including reducing oil consumption in the transportation sector,” says Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research.  “Markets for both vehicles and fuels have gradually begun to respond to these efforts, and alternative fuels ‑ including electricity, natural gas, and biodiesel ‑ are beginning to have an impact on global oil demand.”

While the market for electric vehicles is growing at a healthy pace, according to the report, the most impactful fuel savings strategy is likely to come from fuel efficiency improvements in the conventional vehicle platform and the internal combustion engine (ICE).  To meet the increased fuel economy requirements for new vehicles, automakers have made major investments in engine downsizing, reducing vehicle weights, and vehicle electrification. 

The report, “Transportation Forecast: Global Fuel Consumption”, analyzes the global road transportation fuels market by alternative fuel and vehicle segment (light duty vehicles and medium and heavy duty vehicles).  Analysis and data are provided for the following fuels: gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, drop-in biofuels, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, electricity, and hydrogen.  Global market forecasts for energy, oil, and fuel consumption, segmented by country and vehicle segment, extend through 2035.  An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

About Navigant Research

Navigant Research, the dedicated research arm of Navigant, provides market research and benchmarking services for rapidly changing and often highly regulated industries.  In the energy sector, Navigant Research focuses on in-depth analysis and reporting about global clean technology markets.  The team’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Smart Utilities, Smart Transportation, and Smart Buildings sectors.